Reinhart and rogoff 2009 this time is different

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reinhart and rogoff 2009 this time is different

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, this time is different--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to todays subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.


Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.


An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.
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Published 26.12.2018

Dieses Mal ist es anders (This time is different) – Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff - Rezension

The Reinhart and Rogoff Controversy: A Summing Up

Financial crises are nothing new. They have been around since the development of money and financial markets. But financial crises have continued to thrive through the ages, and they plague countries to this day. No matter how different the latest financial frenzy or crisis always appears, there are usually remarkable similarities with past experience from other countries and from history. But financial crises follow a rhythm of boom and bust through the ages. Recognizing these analogies and precedents is an essential step toward improving our global financial system, both to reduce the risk of future crisis and to better handle catastrophes when they happen. Infusions of cash can make a government look like it is providing greater growth to its economy than it really is.

This Chartbook provides a pictorial history, on a country-by-country basis, of public debt and economic crises of various forms. It is a timeline of a country's creditworthiness and financial turmoil. The analysis, narrative, and illustrations in Reinhart and Rogoff , This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, were primarily organized around themes serial default, inflation, etc. The Chartbook compliments the thematic analysis with individual country histories, and provides the grounds for a systematic analysis of the temporal patterns of debt cycles, banking and sovereign debt crises, hyperinflation, and, for the post World War II period, the reliance on IMF programs. Princeton: Princeton University Press, September 2 Development of the American Economy. Economic Fluctuations and Growth.

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity.

The giant wave in the top section of the graphic depicts the percentage of world GDP by region in crisis during the year period. It includes the four major financial crisis types sovereign default, banking, currency, and inflation along with stock market crashes. The bottom section provides a detailed chart of all sovereign defaults by country, region and year.
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Never mind the five-cent cigar. What this country needs is a good economic bull-detector program—along the lines of the faculty that Ernest Hemingway famously advised writers to develop—available in formats ranging from an iPhone application and giant SAP software to a free Linux version downloadable from the Web. Such a sensibility, put on a computer and run, would be especially useful with respect to those putative forms of non-fiction known as investment advice and political persuasion. The power to structure or to disguise information, even to withhold it, is greater still. But such mastery is far from absolute. If you can measure what is entailed by a proposition, if you can express it in numbers, you have a chance of knowing something about it.

5 thoughts on “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart

  1. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been Finalist for the Business Book Award ("Best of the Rest") in Current.

  2. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters.

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